The speed, sophistication, and impacts of AI technology development together comprise some of the most astonishing and significant events of our lifetimes. Clearly, AI development promises both enormous risks and opportunities for society. To help humankind navigate this crucial period, Metaculus is building a team dedicated to AI forecasting.

As a Quantitative Research Analyst in AI Forecasting, you’ll use quantitative modeling to improve our ability to anticipate the future of AI and its impact on the world, enhance our AI-related decision making capabilities, and enable quantitative evaluation of ideas about the dynamics governing AI progress.

Using your deep and broad knowledge of AI concepts, algorithms, and research trends, your understanding of causality and causal inference, and your strong mathematical, statistical, and computational skills, you’ll work to fortify the team’s outputs with a rigorous quantitative element. You’ll build causal models and simulations to facilitate decision making in crucial areas such as AI alignment strategy, will contribute to a suite of world model components that will be used across multiple AI-relevant analyses, and will build a detailed, interactive, public-facing model estimating many key facets of the trajectory of transformative AI. You’ll also use our unique AI dataset to identify trends, and to evaluate claims about AI progress.

A note about location

Metaculus is currently hiring within several "regional hub" zones in order to enable team members to frequently meet and collaborate in person. This role could be based in London or New York City. For exceptional candidates, we are open to discussing alternative solutions.

• Strong scientific programming skills, ideally in Python or Julia
• Solid background in mathematics and statistics
• Good understanding of causality theory, and experience applying causal inference in practice
• Familiarity with AI concepts and algorithms, and with the latest trends in ML research
• Practical experience with ML/data science techniques
• Metaculus’s mission resonates strongly with you

Metaculus offers competitive compensation and flexible benefits, including health insurance cost reimbursement. Metaculus is an equal opportunity employer that knows and appreciates the benefits of a diverse workforce.